Import AI 458: Reckoning with the future; and a singularity story
What AI-driven miracles will happen this year?
What AI-driven miracles will happen this year?
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What laws does superintelligence demand?
Overview of adaptive parallel reasoning. What if a reasoning model could decide for itself when to decompose and parallelize independent subtasks, how many concurrent threads to spawn, and how to coordinate them based on the problem at hand? We provide a detailed analysis of recent progress in the field of parallel reasoning, especially Adaptive Parallel Reasoning. Disclosure: this post is part landscape survey, part perspective on adaptive parallel reasoning. One of the authors (Tony Lian) co-led ThreadWeaver ( Lian et al., 2025 ), one of the methods discussed below. The authors aim to present each approach on its own terms. Motivation Recent progress in LLM reasoning capabilities has been largely driven by inference-time scaling, in addition to data and parameter scaling ( OpenAI et al., 2024 ; DeepSeek-AI et al., 2025 ). Models that explicitly output reasoning tokens (through intermediate steps, backtracking, and exploration) now dominate math, coding, and agentic benchmarks. These behaviors allow models to explore alternative hypotheses, correct earlier mistakes, and synthesize conclusions rather than committing to a single solution ( Wen et al., 2025 ). The problem is that seq
GRASP is a new gradient-based planner for learned dynamics (a “world model”) that makes long-horizon planning practical by (1) lifting the trajectory into virtual states so optimization is parallel across time, (2) adding stochasticity directly to the state iterates for exploration, and (3) reshaping gradients so actions get clean signals while we avoid brittle “state-input” gradients through high-dimensional vision models. Large, learned world models are becoming increasingly capable. They can predict long sequences of future observations in high-dimensional visual spaces and generalize across tasks in ways that were difficult to imagine a few years ago. As these models scale, they start to look less like task-specific predictors and more like general-purpose simulators. But having a powerful predictive model is not the same as being able to use it effectively for control/learning/planning. In practice, long-horizon planning with modern world models remains fragile: optimization becomes ill-conditioned, non-greedy structure creates bad local minima, and high-dimensional latent spaces introduce subtle failure modes. In this blog post, I describe the problems that motivated this pro
Understanding the behavior of complex machine learning systems, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), is a critical challenge in modern artificial intelligence. Interpretability research aims to make the decision-making process more transparent to model builders and impacted humans, a step toward safer and more trustworthy AI. To gain a comprehensive understanding, we can analyze these systems through different lenses: feature attribution , which isolates the specific input features driving a prediction ( Lundberg & Lee, 2017 ; Ribeiro et al., 2022 ); data attribution , which links model behaviors to influential training examples ( Koh & Liang, 2017 ; Ilyas et al., 2022 ); and mechanistic interpretability , which dissects the functions of internal components ( Conmy et al., 2023 ; Sharkey et al., 2025 ). Across these perspectives, the same fundamental hurdle persists: complexity at scale . Model behavior is rarely the result of isolated components; rather, it emerges from complex dependencies and patterns. To achieve state-of-the-art performance, models synthesize complex feature relationships, find shared patterns from diverse training examples, and process information throug
An encoder (optical system) maps objects to noiseless images, which noise corrupts into measurements. Our information estimator uses only these noisy measurements and a noise model to quantify how well measurements distinguish objects. Many imaging systems produce measurements that humans never see or cannot interpret directly. Your smartphone processes raw sensor data through algorithms before producing the final photo. MRI scanners collect frequency-space measurements that require reconstruction before doctors can view them. Self-driving cars process camera and LiDAR data directly with neural networks. What matters in these systems is not how measurements look, but how much useful information they contain. AI can extract this information even when it is encoded in ways that humans cannot interpret. And yet we rarely evaluate information content directly. Traditional metrics like resolution and signal-to-noise ratio assess individual aspects of quality separately, making it difficult to compare systems that trade off between these factors. The common alternative, training neural networks to reconstruct or classify images, conflates the quality of the imaging hardware with the qual
In this post, I’ll introduce a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm based on an “alternative” paradigm: divide and conquer . Unlike traditional methods, this algorithm is not based on temporal difference (TD) learning (which has scalability challenges ), and scales well to long-horizon tasks. We can do Reinforcement Learning (RL) based on divide and conquer, instead of temporal difference (TD) learning. Problem setting: off-policy RL Our problem setting is off-policy RL . Let’s briefly review what this means. There are two classes of algorithms in RL: on-policy RL and off-policy RL. On-policy RL means we can only use fresh data collected by the current policy. In other words, we have to throw away old data each time we update the policy. Algorithms like PPO and GRPO (and policy gradient methods in general) belong to this category. Off-policy RL means we don’t have this restriction: we can use any kind of data, including old experience, human demonstrations, Internet data, and so on. So off-policy RL is more general and flexible than on-policy RL (and of course harder!). Q-learning is the most well-known off-policy RL algorithm. In domains where data collection is expensive ( e.g.
What exactly does word2vec learn, and how? Answering this question amounts to understanding representation learning in a minimal yet interesting language modeling task. Despite the fact that word2vec is a well-known precursor to modern language models, for many years, researchers lacked a quantitative and predictive theory describing its learning process. In our new paper , we finally provide such a theory. We prove that there are realistic, practical regimes in which the learning problem reduces to unweighted least-squares matrix factorization . We solve the gradient flow dynamics in closed form; the final learned representations are simply given by PCA. Learning dynamics of word2vec . When trained from small initialization, word2vec learns in discrete, sequential steps. Left: rank-incrementing learning steps in the weight matrix, each decreasing the loss. Right: three time slices of the latent embedding space showing how embedding vectors expand into subspaces of increasing dimension at each learning step, continuing until model capacity is saturated. Before elaborating on this result, let’s motivate the problem. word2vec is a well-known algorithm for learning dense vector repres